Even the oil companies have accepted that oil’s future is shrinking, and could fade away quickly.
For what it's worth, BP says that these are not predictions, they are scenarios. From page 2:
"These scenarios are not predictions of what is likely to happen or what bp would like to happen. Rather they explore the possible implications of different judgements and assumptions concerning the nature of the energy transition and the uncertainties around those judgements."
So I think really, these should be seen as thought exercises, principally. In contrast, the IEA forecasts oil demand to set a new record next year: https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-january-2023
Calling the peak of combustion demand seems within reach, but the omission of petrochemical demand growth in the Energy Outlook was puzzling.
It's a big leap to talk about transport, specifically EV cars for passenger transport, to "oil's future .... could fade away quickly".
Gasoline / petrol is just one fraction coming out of all refined oil. Imagine gasoline demand shrunk to zero overnight, this would mean investing in a new fleet of vehicles, thus diesel demand, to mine, transport and process minerals would ramp up hugely. Diesel comes from oil fractionation, so does gasoline. So what will the gasoline be used for? What about the other fractions?
Greenwash, rinse, repeat: what is going to happen as the 2 Bn+ low income citizens of the world begin to travel and consume resources? What are the palatable "Green" options for the poor? Are we consigning them to a diminished existence so that the rich countries can feel good about themselves?
Solar is not a scalable solution. Nor are EVs currently, after one accounts for the energy and human costs of mining rate metals.
My former agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration meets with BP annually to go over their outlook. I think BP is not a monolithic organization. There are some folks who have bought into the "Beyond Petroleum" theme and some who have not. I'd be interested in what their current leasing and production profile looks like. EIA also produces a lesser-known International Energy Outlook--the full version is every two years. I'll be interested in what they say in the October 2023 Reference case. Right now, the 2021 version does not show a peak.
We think BP is “terribly wrong”.
Their own forecast one year earlier did not have the peak occur this early. The IEA
World Energy Outlook and the U.S. Energy recent Short Term Energy Outlook (Jan 2023) both have that date several years out with the peak between 102.8mmbpd and around 104.2mmbpd.
We think this is more realistic and could even be low before the peak occurs.
We see the rationale for BP’s estimates for decline in the developed world. As for China, India, Indonesia and other parts of SE Asia, Africa and South America, we think BP is overly optimistic.
We give some examples of how this is harming the world’s poorest. >
Understanding what is truly involved at the refinery level to enable delivery of less gasoline and probably more diesel and jet fuel would be a useful contribution to what is otherwise a fantasy piece. BP seem to be off the rails and now mouthpieces for Big Renewables.
Carbon based fuels are not "fading"!
They are being murdered by the Greenies, O'Biden, and our enemies.
It is becoming more clear every day...They want us hungry and shivering in a dark cave.
Prove me wrong?
When will we hit peak lithium?
Hannah I agree mostly.
Indeed the transition starts later than most people think and then goes faster than most people think.
But your statement " an increasingly efficient fleet of cars" I am doubtful. On the other hand if Ford is able to electrify its F150, that is a good sign.
Best regards, Pol Knops
What about downstream industries from oil, like plastics and chemicals? It is also probably in their interest to say this about peak demand to, 1) justify depressed investment into new oil projects, thus keeping the supply constrained and benefitting from a higher price. This drastically increases their ROIC; 2) satisfy the ESG crowd (mission accomplished here...)