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Alex Terrell's avatar

That is a really good analysis.

If Chinese firms are undercutting European firms with the help of government subsidies, then two approaches are possible:

1. Shout that this is unfair, and impose some tariffs on the stuff to slow it down.

2. Say "thanks for the subsidies" and double the order.

Option 2 is what Europe has correctly chosen for solar panels. Yes, sorry the industry has gone in Europe, but the bigger prize is cheap, home grown electricity.

Option 1 is probably better for the car industry, which employs millions of people. Of course, it needs to be accompanied by the auto industry producing its own good EV models and at a low price. Renault 5 anyone? But why did it take so long?

Batteries are somewhat in between Option 1 and Option 2. Europe desperately needs more batteries, as shown by the power cuts in Spain and the massive intraday price swings in Germany and others (caused by all the cheap solar without batteries). And of course the car makers need cheap, good batteries from the likes of BYD if they want to compete with the likes of BYD.

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Sineira's avatar

This is great, thank you for dispelling the smoke around this.

I suspect cars are the same way i.e. cheap electricity and high automation is what drives prices down for Chinese cars?

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Trevor Ridgway's avatar

"When it comes to clean energy technologies, China is crushing it."

"Xinjiang has become the main hub of clean energy technology production in China, in part because it is rich in resources and has cheap coal."

THERE IS YOUR ANSWER ........CHEAP COAL .............and THERE IS THE "STUPIDITY OF THE WEST " IN FULL VIEW ......and THE HYPOCRISY OF CHINA and of THE WESTERN "CLIMATE IDEALOGUES"

[An "ideologue" is a person who strongly adheres to a particular set of beliefs, principles, or ideology, to the point of being inflexible and partisan. They are advocates for their ideology and are not open to considering other perspectives.] ......regardless of all the evidence to the contrary !

THEY USE CHEAP COAL ENERGY to produce EXPENSIVE "RENEWABLES" PRODUCING ENERGY

[ p.v. cells and "windmills" ] and STORAGE [ Batteries ] with the full knowledge and approval of the UNITED NATIONS and other REGULATORY BODIES while blissfully churning out LOWER PRICED PRODUCTS they sell to "THE WEST" who have conveniently "turned a blind eye" to this totally perverse practice ! Total HYPOCRISY !!! "THE WEST" had done itself untold financial harm by legislating itself from using the CHEAP COAL , OIL and GAS that it has available and literally FORCING it's citizens to buy and support the products produced by a FOREIGN REGIME which has simply refused to comply with anybody else's rules or requirements !

THAT IS THE DEFINITION OF STUPIDITY............AND HYPOCRISY...................right there !

CHINA builds and sells products that are supposed to diminish the production of CO2 by using energy from a source that is the main man-made CO2 emitter , has dirty mining and processing facilities for the manufacture of the components of those products , emitting more CO2 , and yet the rest of the world is supposed to ignore the FREEDOM TO PRODUCE CO2 that they are prohibited from producing..................AND "WE" SUPPOSEDLY LIVE IN "THE FREE WORLD" !

In the meantime , CHINA builds more coal-fired-power-stations , Nuclear reactors and all the required infrastructure , while selling it's products to " THE WEST" and becoming inordinately wealthy in the process ! "We" , on the other hand , lose "our" industries and manufacturing skills to such an extent that "we" have become reliant on IMMIGRATION to replenish and fill the deficit !

Such is the CORRUPTION and the INADEQUACY of "our" EDUCATION SYSTEM that "we" now only produce useless , mindless , helpless , welfare dependents [ "activists" ] rather than "graduates" and "Skilled tradesmen" [ to such an extent that "we" can't even BUILD ENOUGH HOUSES FOR OURSELVES !!!! ] . So , there is NO CHANCE that "we" will ever become self-sufficient UNTIL such times as "we" DISCARD THE CURRENT CORRUPT CURRICULA and INSTAL A NEW CURRICULUM which is EDUCATIONAL and NOT MERELY "INDOCTRINATIONAL" .

And YES ! "Our" graduates are AT BEST , SECOND RUNG and SECOND RATE !

The "educational standards" , like everything else in Australia , has been FALLING for many years !!

The "welfare mentality" , and DEI and ESG , has swamped and overwhelmed the previous desire for MERIT BASED EXCELLENCE IN ALL THINGS to "near enough is good enough" and "if I can't do it then I will use AI or Google ! " .....No wonder CONSTRUCTION BUSINESSES are "going broke" for want of expertise and endeavour !

Yep ! AUTOMATION and "doing away with useless "activists" is the way of the future Hannah !!

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Alex Terrell's avatar

Coal may be cheap in China, but it obviously isn't cheap enough. That is why they are racing to replace it with solar PV, which is cheap.

Chinese coal production peaked in 2024. Electricity demand is growing fast (c 7% per year) as they electrify their economy, but the excess and more will be provided by cheap renewables.

Europe doesn't really have the luxury of cheap coal, at least in the west. It also doesn't have the luxury of cheap gas, or oil, unless imported. So the best way to cut electricity prices is to exploit China's cheap exports of solar power.

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Trevor Ridgway's avatar

Thanks for YOUR OPINION Alex : NOW FOR SOME FACTS !

China relies heavily on coal for electricity generation primarily due to its abundance, low cost, and established infrastructure. While China is investing in renewable energy and has committed to phasing down coal consumption, coal remains a critical component of the energy mix, especially for providing reliable power and meeting peak demand.

Here's a more detailed breakdown:

Abundance and Cost:

China possesses vast coal reserves, making it an affordable and readily available energy source.

Established Infrastructure:

China has a well-developed coal power infrastructure, including coal-fired power plants and related industries.

Economic Growth:

Coal supports China's industrialization and economic growth, providing a low-cost energy source for various sectors, according to Carbon Brief.

Dependability and Flexibility:

Coal power plants are considered reliable and can be adjusted to meet fluctuating electricity demand, making them suitable for both base-load and peak power generation.

Energy Security:

While China is diversifying its energy mix, it aims to ensure energy security by maintaining a significant role for coal. ......WHICH IT ISN'T GIVING UP YET !!!!!

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Alex Terrell's avatar

That looks like Chat GPT agreeing with your question.

If you want to know what is happening in China, I suggest you listen to the Redefining Energy - Tech Podcasts with David Fishman, who is a China energy specialist:

https://open.spotify.com/episode/0BNFKPbnwUXeQV8iCbQZuJ

https://open.spotify.com/episode/2unJV4KA2Bx5WTSGbLAvrt

Key take away: China is the most electrified region in the world, and this led to electricity demand growing 7% in 2024. That growth was entirely met with wind and solar growth. Hydro fell a bit due to dry weather, meaning coal grew fractionally. That was a disappointment, as the peak was hoped for in 2023, but will now probably have been in 2024.

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Trevor Ridgway's avatar

Dear Alex.......the fact is......."coal grew fractionally." GREW MEANS INCREASED.

.

and as for : "China is making strides to shut down smaller, less efficient coal plants. Efforts to grow electricity consumption without proportionally increasing coal usage remain a priority, with current coal plant utilization rates around 48-49%"...............YEAH ! CLOSING "smaller, less efficient coal plants"

BUT REPLACING THEM WITH MUCH LARGER , MORE EFFICIENT ONES !!!

.

STOP NIT-PICKING PLEASE.

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Alex Terrell's avatar

The only nit pik is that Chinese coal use peaked in 2024, and not 2023 as had been hoped.

The only question now is how fast it comes down, despite electricity demand going up.

Some of the decline may be due to less efficient plant being replaced by more efficient plant, but far more is due to it being replaced with lower cost renewables.

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Carol's avatar

I can’t remember which Soviet premiere said it (could have been Brezhnev), but basically it was a rueful comment that the US would sell to its enemies the very rope used to hang us with.

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Trevor Ridgway's avatar

Carol.......Succinct and precise assessment !....you "aced it" ! [Apart from 'Premier' ]

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Sineira's avatar

This is nonsense.

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Harry Benham's avatar

Great analysis Hannah as ever - energy enters its technological era and China are leading as they have invested heavily in - er energy technology- that’s what happen when you have limited fossil fuels - (except coal) - necessity invents and now they can export all that cheap tech globally. There is going to be a lot of leap frogging ahead as eg the global South skips the need for oil and gas infrastructure and in the global North next generation solar and EVs eg V2G. Nice analysis and insights

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Mike Dombroski's avatar

Why does China have lower energy costs? It's because they are building rather than closing coal plants! Coal gives a constant baseload electricity supply that CAN'T be replaced with wind and solar. Solar panels or anything made with silicon requires huge amounts of electricity.

They also cut costs on dirty refining practices. There's nothing rare about rare earth metals or secret about refining them. They can colonize the dirty parts, for example, by creating toxic radioactive lakes in Mongolia to refine Neodymium.

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gregvp's avatar
1dEdited

This is like looking at Usain Bolt's very last step as he leans into the tape across the finish line, and saying "he won because his last step was ahead of everyone else's".

Of course industrial policy was everything. How do you think the competitive environment was created? How do you think the automation was possible? How could Chinese companies break ground so quickly on new facilities? Industrial policy.

The UK's, Europe's and North America's industrial policy could be summarised as "Industry? Ick. No thanks". China's as "what do you need?".

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Michael Ethan Gold's avatar

The truth is invariably somewhere between “China manufactures the world’s clean energy technologies because of good reasons” and “China manufactures the world’s clean energy technologies because of bad reasons”. I lived in greater China for over a decade and incredible talent and know-how thrived alongside immense corruption and disregard for environmental and human rights standards. Both things can be true at the same time.

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Ronald Turnbull's avatar

That would be 50 workers per GWh per year? Can't quite make sense of the units here.

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Dr. Melissa Booth's avatar

Hannah, I'm replying with adjacent question to this post, but want your real take on something I just read. James Lovelock article in The Guardian. What is the reality of what James is saying by the numbers? Any possibilty you could do a post on this? https://www.theguardian.com/theguardian/2008/mar/01/scienceofclimatechange.climatechange

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Matt Ball's avatar

Thank you for pointing out that all countries subsidize local industry.

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rahul razdan's avatar

Nice work

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