I think it’s always appropriate to add the caveat to Norway that they have heavily subsidized and forced electric car sales even though they have one of the largest per capita sovereign funds that is almost completely financed by the sale of “dirty” oil. If every country had Norway’s resources, per capita, the government can fund a shift quickly to electric cars. When you only have 5 million people and a crap load of dirty dollars, you can do a lot of things other places don’t. Statistics are fun to “lie” with!!
I have an 8 yr old Infiniti that gets 20 mpg and only drive 5-6 K miles a year---gonna drive it the rest of my life--20-25 years unless the gov buys me an electric car.
That's one take on Norway. Another equally valid take is that they are spending their petro-dollars wisely by investing in technologies to clean up the mess.
Pumping, selling, and enabling the production of massive amounts of CO2 and reaping the financial rewards—-Norway should be buying electric cars for people in other countries if the are really interested in “cleaning up the mess”
PS- haven’t been there yet but I really like Norway!
Indeed, most of the cobalt now mined is wrapped up in a lot of human misery. Pressuring car cos on ethical minerals and strict traceability is key. Especially for cars made and bought in democracies.
It’s a great question that I don’t have an answer to. Cobalt is in tons of batteries, such as iPhones laptops. And it is in gas turbine engines. So do we not use smart phones and not fly because it is not an affordable ethical cost?
Honestly something I think about. A related question is why did we hear nothing about cobalt supply issues until EVs? Why weren’t we talking about this when iPhones were exploding?
Cobalt is used to remove sulfur when refining petroleum. It takes 14-18 ounces of cobalt to refine 80,000-85,000 gallons of refined product. Almost 99% of it is recovered in the process.
At what rate do you think India will move in EV adoption? though the technology is getting cheaper, the infrastructure necessary to manage EV for 100s of millions of potential customer seems farther away.
Another excellent article. As an electric car owner it is encouraging to see that the EV market is expanding and we will have more EVs on the road year on year, hopefully driving costs down and encouraging more uptake. It feels as though 2021/22 is the beginning of an inflection point for the technology.
Your previous post outlining the point at which EV cars' carbon footprint is negated (3-4 years) has stayed with me. As most EVs are new cars, most of these owners will be encouraged to trade in and buy up after 3 years (as is the market trend) but i am conflicted as to whether it will be better or worse for the environment to do this. On the one hand the car will only just become carbon neutral in its cost, so it feels as though we should drive that car for longer to really cash in on its ecological value. However on the other hand investing in a new EV will pass that second hand car into the market and also introduce a new EV which will inevitably help drive the overall transition forward... Which would mean that buying and keeping the car for as long as possible would be less valuable for the environment than you would think...
You should examine the absolute numbers along with percentages. The US is far more reliant on automobiles than most of Europe so the percentage differences would be misleading.
This is a great post, thank you Hannah. I think you're right that the IEA's estimate for EV growth by 2030 is too small and I'm looking forward to that post
This post was great... was looking at the Q1 2023 numbers in California yesterday and if I'm reading it correctly, 21% of all light duty vehicles sold in the state in Q1 were ZEVs. In the Bay Area counties, that figure is closer to 30%. The data is at the link below and published just last week - let me know if you read it differently! https://www.energy.ca.gov/files/zev-and-infrastructure-stats-data
Thanks for the interesting article! Last year I looked for the data on how many electric cars were sold the year before from each manufacturer and I could only find about 2-3 million. Do you have a breakdown of the sales of electric passenger cars by manufacturer?
I think it’s always appropriate to add the caveat to Norway that they have heavily subsidized and forced electric car sales even though they have one of the largest per capita sovereign funds that is almost completely financed by the sale of “dirty” oil. If every country had Norway’s resources, per capita, the government can fund a shift quickly to electric cars. When you only have 5 million people and a crap load of dirty dollars, you can do a lot of things other places don’t. Statistics are fun to “lie” with!!
I have an 8 yr old Infiniti that gets 20 mpg and only drive 5-6 K miles a year---gonna drive it the rest of my life--20-25 years unless the gov buys me an electric car.
That's one take on Norway. Another equally valid take is that they are spending their petro-dollars wisely by investing in technologies to clean up the mess.
Pumping, selling, and enabling the production of massive amounts of CO2 and reaping the financial rewards—-Norway should be buying electric cars for people in other countries if the are really interested in “cleaning up the mess”
PS- haven’t been there yet but I really like Norway!
A lot of these batteries require minerals such as cobalt which is often mined with slavery. How do you balance this human cost ethically?
Indeed, most of the cobalt now mined is wrapped up in a lot of human misery. Pressuring car cos on ethical minerals and strict traceability is key. Especially for cars made and bought in democracies.
This is paywalled but the headline alone says a lot https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/apples-cobalt-recycling-pledge-could-require-a-third-of-supply-by-2025
Battery tech is moving away from cobalt as fast as it can. And recycling will play a huge role in reduced mining and suffering.
In the meantime it’s an affordable (ethical) cost? Serious question
It’s a great question that I don’t have an answer to. Cobalt is in tons of batteries, such as iPhones laptops. And it is in gas turbine engines. So do we not use smart phones and not fly because it is not an affordable ethical cost?
Honestly something I think about. A related question is why did we hear nothing about cobalt supply issues until EVs? Why weren’t we talking about this when iPhones were exploding?
And it might be the intense research from EV companies that gives us the alternative battery chemistry we need to eliminate cobalt from all batteries. Half of Teslas are cobalt free so far and that trend will gratefully accelerate. https://electrek.co/2022/04/22/tesla-using-cobalt-free-lfp-batteries-in-half-new-cars-produced/
Refining petrol and diesel also uses cobalt, but that's a single use, whereas cobalt in a car battery can be recycled at the end of the car's life.
Cobalt is used to remove sulfur when refining petroleum. It takes 14-18 ounces of cobalt to refine 80,000-85,000 gallons of refined product. Almost 99% of it is recovered in the process.
Interesting - would be interested to know comparable quantities used?
Good question, I don't know. Maybe Hannah could do a post on minerals and the low carbon economy before long? The Earthbound Report might have one
At what rate do you think India will move in EV adoption? though the technology is getting cheaper, the infrastructure necessary to manage EV for 100s of millions of potential customer seems farther away.
I wonder if Japan will catch up?
Another excellent article. As an electric car owner it is encouraging to see that the EV market is expanding and we will have more EVs on the road year on year, hopefully driving costs down and encouraging more uptake. It feels as though 2021/22 is the beginning of an inflection point for the technology.
Your previous post outlining the point at which EV cars' carbon footprint is negated (3-4 years) has stayed with me. As most EVs are new cars, most of these owners will be encouraged to trade in and buy up after 3 years (as is the market trend) but i am conflicted as to whether it will be better or worse for the environment to do this. On the one hand the car will only just become carbon neutral in its cost, so it feels as though we should drive that car for longer to really cash in on its ecological value. However on the other hand investing in a new EV will pass that second hand car into the market and also introduce a new EV which will inevitably help drive the overall transition forward... Which would mean that buying and keeping the car for as long as possible would be less valuable for the environment than you would think...
Good points. Clearly the longer an EV lasts the better, and it doesn't matter to the environment who owns it.
You should examine the absolute numbers along with percentages. The US is far more reliant on automobiles than most of Europe so the percentage differences would be misleading.
This is a great post, thank you Hannah. I think you're right that the IEA's estimate for EV growth by 2030 is too small and I'm looking forward to that post
How many EV miles in China (and Germany) are being powered by burning coal?
(Yes, I'm still bitter about Germany taking their nuclear plants offline)
PS: thanks for this post. We were supposed to have a rental Tesla but they were out and gave us a gas car.
This post was great... was looking at the Q1 2023 numbers in California yesterday and if I'm reading it correctly, 21% of all light duty vehicles sold in the state in Q1 were ZEVs. In the Bay Area counties, that figure is closer to 30%. The data is at the link below and published just last week - let me know if you read it differently! https://www.energy.ca.gov/files/zev-and-infrastructure-stats-data
Thanks for the interesting article! Last year I looked for the data on how many electric cars were sold the year before from each manufacturer and I could only find about 2-3 million. Do you have a breakdown of the sales of electric passenger cars by manufacturer?