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Arturo Macias's avatar

It is more than that: minerals are a reciclable stock, while fossil fuels are flow. They are “burned” in use. Vaclav Smil said (Materials and dematerialization) that 75 per cent of Aluminium extracted in history is still in use. Fossil fuel substitution is difficult, and in my view we will use fossil fuel for backup power for the foreseeable future, but even the partial substitution of fossil fuels by wind and power will be a massive dematerialization event: the largest since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution.

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Keith Williams's avatar

Hannah, with reference to your footnote about renewables having variable output, it is really important to note that intermittent renewable power production has been revolutionised by quality weather forecasting. This means that grid managers have estimates of power to be delivered substantially ahead of time and this makes easier managing a renewables-based grid. The point is that even 48 hours out from delivery there are indications about likely solar PV and wind power delivery. The estimated power delivered gets more accurately measured as the time for delivery approaches. When coupled with time shifting (eg run air con during the day), grid interconnectivity accessing power up to 1000 km away using HVDC cabling, and demand management, the need for fossil fuel (eg gas peaker) backup goes away. A fully electrified wheeled transport system will ultimately provide huge accessible stored power. And of course there is massive adoption of grid-scale battery storage being implemented.

All of the above support energy security and avoid the sovereign risk of depending on fossil fuel supply from far away.

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