Will there be any responses on the Substack to, say, Thea Riofrancos’ work on mining impacts on indigenous peoples? What about materials recycling, is it mature enough technologically to be rapidly scaled up?
And also, it would be nice to see if there are any projections on changes to battery chemistry, or replacing demand for cars with demand for e-bikes, scooters and electric trains, and their effects on mining, which Riofrancos touches on
I've done some number crunching on the impact of replacing car miles with ebike miles. My conclusion was that an ebike gets anywhere from 30 to 100 times more miles per pound of battery than an efficient electric car. See https://sites.google.com/view/ebikestudy/battery for assumptions, the vehicles compared, and the calculations
Actually, the main concern is the just transition and the human rights that are being abused by the big corporates with a local complicity from the ruling elites. There is no way to do this shift if we keep the same consuming patterns. If you scrutinize the mining of these materials you will be shocked from human rights abuse and the working conditions of the most impoverished people in these countries. Not to mention as well the moderns slavery in such a supply chain.
Interesting analysis. Does the analysis on the energy required to extract the minerals (and resultant emissions) take account of falling grades. That is to say, new deposits tend to have less of the required metal per tonne of ore.
The energy required to extract the metal rises exponentially as grade falls. See for example the work of Michaux and this paper:
Michaux might be good on mining - but he's LOUSY on energy. He's basically a peak oiler from back in the day hating on renewables and EV's for ruining his doomer days. I'd treat his opinion on renewable energy systems with the same respect as Donald Trump's opinion on climate change! I just don't trust someone making technical claims that even I SNORT at in disbelieving laughter! https://eclipsenow.wordpress.com/michaux/
If I can find all that stuff - and I'm from a SOCIAL sciences background - what do real energy experts or investigative journalists think? Here are 2 more reviews.
What are your thoughts on deep-sea mining for minerals such as nickel?
It seems like a straight trade-off between environmental damage and mineral access but proponents for it in cases like in the Clarion Clipperton Zone say that it’s less damaging than current extraction processes. If we need to up current global output for these minerals then we should do it in the least damaging ways possible (environmental and carbon).
Tellurium is part of the 5% of solar cells that are thin-film. 95% of brands in the solar market are normal Crystalline cells made of silicon (27% of earth's crust), aluminium (8%), and glass and some copper - although aluminium could hypothetically replace copper in solar if copper ever ran low.
Hannah, Do you have a link to the actual paper? I found the paper cited (wrong link in the original email) but I can only find an abstract, not the whole paper.
I wonder how many of these rare materials are present in "spoil" from other mining? We know that Tin and Lead tend to come from the same strata - see Cornwall, UK.
I wonder if we could build more integrated ore processing systems, extract the prime mineral/metal, then process the "Spoil" for other elements? One particularly interesting item is Thorium - vey common, low level radioactive but a feasible nuclear power fuel - first proved in the 60s and 70s at Livermore, it was never progressed because you cant get bomb material from a Thorium reactor, or at least its much easier with a fast breeder. I'd like to see some more modern studies.
Tellurium is an important element used in renewable energy, particularly in the production of solar panels. Here's how it's utilized and the possibilities for substitutes:
Use in Solar Panels:
Cadmium Telluride (CdTe) Solar Cells: Tellurium is a key component in CdTe solar cells, one of the two main types of thin-film solar cells. CdTe solar cells are known for their low-cost production and high conversion efficiency.
Photovoltaic Efficiency: Tellurium, when combined with cadmium to form CdTe, creates a material with a high photovoltaic efficiency, meaning it effectively converts sunlight into electricity.
Potential Substitutes:
Finding substitutes for tellurium is challenging due to its unique properties, but research is ongoing.
Alternative Materials for Solar Cells: Materials like copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS) and organic photovoltaic cells are being explored as potential alternatives. These materials can be used in thin-film solar cells, similar to CdTe.
Silicon-Based Solar Cells: While not a direct substitute for tellurium in CdTe cells, silicon solar cells are the most common type of solar cells and do not require tellurium. However, they have different characteristics and manufacturing processes compared to CdTe solar cells.
Challenges and Research:
Scarcity and Cost: Tellurium is rarer than gold in the Earth's crust, making it a scarce resource. This scarcity can lead to higher costs and supply limitations.
Research Focus: There's ongoing research to either find more efficient ways to utilize tellurium or develop alternative materials that can match or surpass the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of CdTe solar cells.
In summary, tellurium is crucial in the renewable energy sector, especially in the production of CdTe solar cells. While there are potential substitutes, each comes with its own set of challenges and benefits, and research continues to advance in this field.
Exactly! It's good to point out 95% of solar cells ALREADY avoid tellurium just to remind young people that this isn't really a problem for solar as such - just a challenge to a particularly niche part of the industry. Only 5% of cells are thin-film. Normal solar? No worries - silicon aluminium glass (and maybe some copper, but even that could one day be replaced by aluminium)
Refined - maybe - but Australia provides half the lithium. So it's worth googling around to find out exactly what technologies need what exact minerals. Because as some of these rare earths and so called "Critical Minerals" run low - we're going to find other brands shooting ahead in the marketplace simply because they are so much cheaper. Why? Because they avoid using rare earths and Critical Minerals in the first place! As we start to run low on this stuff - we're going to discover Critical Minerals are just NOT that critical after all! I've googled each critical mineral and there is a substitute or way of simply bypassing it. It's only 'critical' to certain brands. That's it.
The scenarios are key to assessing the usefulness of this study. Do they allow for rising living standards in Africa and central Asia? To what extent? I don't have either the time or access to the paper and supporting materials to find out at present, so I hope someone will.
Also, as you note, Hannah, it's not clear whether they are looking at electricity as currently used (about a fifth of total final energy according to Smil), or "electrify all the things", which is closer to what is needed.
I am surprised at the large size of reserves. Generally miners consider it a waste of money to do the surveys, studies, and permitting work needed to bring resources into reserves more than ten or twenty years ahead of time.
Edited to add: Ed Conway's book "Material World" has a great chapter on sand, which discusses silicon production in some depth--for lay-people, anyway. Recommended reading.
I remember reading roughly the same prediction a decade ago. The fact that 2010s predictions hold up in the 2020s is a good sign that 2020s predictions will hold up in the 2030s.
The more the energy transition unfolds, the less we'll ship fossil fuels around. 40% of cargo ships move coal, oil and gas. That's about 22 thousand ships. I once calculated (very back of envelope) that this was enough recycled steel for all the towers for wind turbines at 2030 rates of construction for about 4 years.
That'd be if this was the first time we're using this materials. But they're being used already in other stuff and usually we're not recycling them.
You can see that the author says we'd need to increase production by 5-15%, which means supply of these materials exists already and they are being used around. Of course I understand we cannot get recycled material from the infrastructure yet to be built 😅.
Will there be any responses on the Substack to, say, Thea Riofrancos’ work on mining impacts on indigenous peoples? What about materials recycling, is it mature enough technologically to be rapidly scaled up?
And also, it would be nice to see if there are any projections on changes to battery chemistry, or replacing demand for cars with demand for e-bikes, scooters and electric trains, and their effects on mining, which Riofrancos touches on
Speaking of battery chemistry, https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/nov/21/breakthrough-battery-from-sweden-may-cut-dependency-on-china
https://www.power-technology.com/news/northvolt-makes-sodium-ion-battery-breakthrough/
I've done some number crunching on the impact of replacing car miles with ebike miles. My conclusion was that an ebike gets anywhere from 30 to 100 times more miles per pound of battery than an efficient electric car. See https://sites.google.com/view/ebikestudy/battery for assumptions, the vehicles compared, and the calculations
Thanks, it looks impressive. I’ll definitely peruse it soon
Actually, the main concern is the just transition and the human rights that are being abused by the big corporates with a local complicity from the ruling elites. There is no way to do this shift if we keep the same consuming patterns. If you scrutinize the mining of these materials you will be shocked from human rights abuse and the working conditions of the most impoverished people in these countries. Not to mention as well the moderns slavery in such a supply chain.
Thank you
Interesting analysis. Does the analysis on the energy required to extract the minerals (and resultant emissions) take account of falling grades. That is to say, new deposits tend to have less of the required metal per tonne of ore.
The energy required to extract the metal rises exponentially as grade falls. See for example the work of Michaux and this paper:
https://www.mdpi.com/2079-9276/5/4/36#:~:text=Analyzing%20only%20copper%20mines%2C%20the,over%2030%25%20production%20increase).
Michaux might be good on mining - but he's LOUSY on energy. He's basically a peak oiler from back in the day hating on renewables and EV's for ruining his doomer days. I'd treat his opinion on renewable energy systems with the same respect as Donald Trump's opinion on climate change! I just don't trust someone making technical claims that even I SNORT at in disbelieving laughter! https://eclipsenow.wordpress.com/michaux/
If I can find all that stuff - and I'm from a SOCIAL sciences background - what do real energy experts or investigative journalists think? Here are 2 more reviews.
Michael Barnard: an actual renewables engineer with experience in the industry. https://cleantechnica.com/2023/07/04/how-many-things-must-one-analyst-get-wrong-in-order-to-proclaim-a-convenient-decarbonization-minerals-shortage/
Nafeez M Ahmed: investigative journalist and tech writer https://ageoftransformation.org/energy-transformation-wont-be-derailed-by-lack-of-raw-materials/
What are your thoughts on deep-sea mining for minerals such as nickel?
It seems like a straight trade-off between environmental damage and mineral access but proponents for it in cases like in the Clarion Clipperton Zone say that it’s less damaging than current extraction processes. If we need to up current global output for these minerals then we should do it in the least damaging ways possible (environmental and carbon).
Tellurium is part of the 5% of solar cells that are thin-film. 95% of brands in the solar market are normal Crystalline cells made of silicon (27% of earth's crust), aluminium (8%), and glass and some copper - although aluminium could hypothetically replace copper in solar if copper ever ran low.
Hannah, Do you have a link to the actual paper? I found the paper cited (wrong link in the original email) but I can only find an abstract, not the whole paper.
I wonder how many of these rare materials are present in "spoil" from other mining? We know that Tin and Lead tend to come from the same strata - see Cornwall, UK.
I wonder if we could build more integrated ore processing systems, extract the prime mineral/metal, then process the "Spoil" for other elements? One particularly interesting item is Thorium - vey common, low level radioactive but a feasible nuclear power fuel - first proved in the 60s and 70s at Livermore, it was never progressed because you cant get bomb material from a Thorium reactor, or at least its much easier with a fast breeder. I'd like to see some more modern studies.
This tellurium - how is it used? are there potential substitutes?
Tellurium is an important element used in renewable energy, particularly in the production of solar panels. Here's how it's utilized and the possibilities for substitutes:
Use in Solar Panels:
Cadmium Telluride (CdTe) Solar Cells: Tellurium is a key component in CdTe solar cells, one of the two main types of thin-film solar cells. CdTe solar cells are known for their low-cost production and high conversion efficiency.
Photovoltaic Efficiency: Tellurium, when combined with cadmium to form CdTe, creates a material with a high photovoltaic efficiency, meaning it effectively converts sunlight into electricity.
Potential Substitutes:
Finding substitutes for tellurium is challenging due to its unique properties, but research is ongoing.
Alternative Materials for Solar Cells: Materials like copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS) and organic photovoltaic cells are being explored as potential alternatives. These materials can be used in thin-film solar cells, similar to CdTe.
Silicon-Based Solar Cells: While not a direct substitute for tellurium in CdTe cells, silicon solar cells are the most common type of solar cells and do not require tellurium. However, they have different characteristics and manufacturing processes compared to CdTe solar cells.
Challenges and Research:
Scarcity and Cost: Tellurium is rarer than gold in the Earth's crust, making it a scarce resource. This scarcity can lead to higher costs and supply limitations.
Research Focus: There's ongoing research to either find more efficient ways to utilize tellurium or develop alternative materials that can match or surpass the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of CdTe solar cells.
In summary, tellurium is crucial in the renewable energy sector, especially in the production of CdTe solar cells. While there are potential substitutes, each comes with its own set of challenges and benefits, and research continues to advance in this field.
Exactly! It's good to point out 95% of solar cells ALREADY avoid tellurium just to remind young people that this isn't really a problem for solar as such - just a challenge to a particularly niche part of the industry. Only 5% of cells are thin-film. Normal solar? No worries - silicon aluminium glass (and maybe some copper, but even that could one day be replaced by aluminium)
Thanks.
Amazing that this post doesn’t mention China where (other than silver and copper) the vast majority of these minerals are mined and refined.
Refined - maybe - but Australia provides half the lithium. So it's worth googling around to find out exactly what technologies need what exact minerals. Because as some of these rare earths and so called "Critical Minerals" run low - we're going to find other brands shooting ahead in the marketplace simply because they are so much cheaper. Why? Because they avoid using rare earths and Critical Minerals in the first place! As we start to run low on this stuff - we're going to discover Critical Minerals are just NOT that critical after all! I've googled each critical mineral and there is a substitute or way of simply bypassing it. It's only 'critical' to certain brands. That's it.
The scenarios are key to assessing the usefulness of this study. Do they allow for rising living standards in Africa and central Asia? To what extent? I don't have either the time or access to the paper and supporting materials to find out at present, so I hope someone will.
Also, as you note, Hannah, it's not clear whether they are looking at electricity as currently used (about a fifth of total final energy according to Smil), or "electrify all the things", which is closer to what is needed.
I am surprised at the large size of reserves. Generally miners consider it a waste of money to do the surveys, studies, and permitting work needed to bring resources into reserves more than ten or twenty years ahead of time.
Edited to add: Ed Conway's book "Material World" has a great chapter on sand, which discusses silicon production in some depth--for lay-people, anyway. Recommended reading.
I remember reading roughly the same prediction a decade ago. The fact that 2010s predictions hold up in the 2020s is a good sign that 2020s predictions will hold up in the 2030s.
https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/pdf/article/2012/ra/c2ra20839c
“Addressing the terawatt challenge: scalability in the supply of chemical elements for renewable energy.”
Hi Hannah, really interesting article thank you. Wonder if this may help on the transportation aspects https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/534463/1/batteryRawMaterial.pdf
Keen to get involved so following with great interest.
This is also without taking into account any kind of recicling that would reduce the need to extract so much from earth
Recycling can only happen after the infrastructure has been built out and starts wearing out. You can't recycle something that hasn't been built yet.
The more the energy transition unfolds, the less we'll ship fossil fuels around. 40% of cargo ships move coal, oil and gas. That's about 22 thousand ships. I once calculated (very back of envelope) that this was enough recycled steel for all the towers for wind turbines at 2030 rates of construction for about 4 years.
That'd be if this was the first time we're using this materials. But they're being used already in other stuff and usually we're not recycling them.
You can see that the author says we'd need to increase production by 5-15%, which means supply of these materials exists already and they are being used around. Of course I understand we cannot get recycled material from the infrastructure yet to be built 😅.