Google AI did a great job of tracking Hurricane Melissa which is currently wacking Jamaica after following a pretty erratic track. Those extra days warning make all the difference when you are on the ground. Unfortunately, it's a monster.
Prediction based on patterns in huge historical datasets is a great use for AI, and weather forecasting is a great example.
Some of the other potential uses are much less benign. Health insurance claim denials, expected voting behavior, etc. It depends who is paying for it and for whose benefit the modeling is done.
Weather forecasting is also increasingly important to managing electricity grids and anticipating near term generation (and storage) requirements. As more renewable energy is added it will become even more significant.
"......but they can make a huge difference to farmers (which is the majority in low-income countries) as they guide them on when and what to plant. "
Well......WHAT to plant will surely have been decided long ago ! It will be either corn, wheat, rice, barley, sorghum, oat , rye , potatoes , sugar cane, potatoes, soybeans, oil-palm fruit, sugar beet or cassava and bananas ..........or quinoa or coffee or cacao perhaps .............whatever they traditionally grow and whatever "SEED" or "propagating material" they have !
And WHEN.......will depend on the rainfall ! No rain = no crop . Too much rain = delayed crop.
So ....sorry to be obtuse........but I don't see the "huge difference" in the what and the when .
.
"A good forecast could be the difference between a great harvest and none at all." Really ?
What do you envisage ? Harvesting your grapes , grain or pumpkins BEFORE they are ripe is futile.
Locking the "chickens" into the fowl-house so you can still get eggs ?...Pick a few strawberries ?
Harvesting a small amount of produce before a storm hits is probably going to make very little difference either ! Perhaps save you a trip to the grocery store for a few days ?
The forecast will NOT really affect the harvest other than for INSURANCE purposes .
IT HELPS TO VALIDATE THE FARMER'S CLAIM !
In Australia, farmers can insure their crops against events like hail, fire, and flood, as well as risks from pest infestations and diseases. This can include broad coverage through Multi-Peril Crop Insurance (MPCI), which protects against a range of weather-related perils like drought, excessive rainfall, frost, and pests, herbicide-drift from neighbouring farms etc ...... Other options may cover specific risks or harvested crops.
Yes.....a decent weather forecast CAN assist with your planning BUT it makes no difference if the circumstances change ! e.g. the rain falls elsewhere , your soil-type needs MORE rain than what you receive this time , you get the lightning strikes [ and the fires] but not the rain to put them out etc. Farming is , and always has been , a risky business and it is entirely unpredictable.....AI or not !
I think that Ken Fabian is on the right track !
It will always be more relevant to INFRASTRUCTURE than it is to AGRICULTURE.
Rail and roads and bridges may wash away and airstrips may be closed....isolation due to flooding etc. Power-lines and communication networks 'knocked-out' . Animals may run out of fodder etc.
but.....whatever......planning , no matter how good it is in theory , always goes hay-wire when the problem occurs !
"..but they can make a huge difference to farmers (which is the majority in low-income countries)"
Hannah....there ARE no low income countries anymore ! Yes....low priority for agriculture perhaps !
But you have to remember that India , Pakistan , China , Russia and the like , have HUGE standing military forces with the latest weaponry , including atomic weapons , have ICBM's .......and we are going to have a couple of submarines , outdated aircraft and some new frigates in 10 years time !
Sorry , but I can't exactly raise much sympathy for "the low income countries" farmers !
Perhaps "THEY" will still BUY our iron-ore and wheat and wool to help pay for the "subs" ??????
I'll wait and see. Not the first time a big academic project says their seasonal forecasting could help farmers. Not much to show for all the money thus far. Throwing in the flavour of the year (AI) was a predictable move of course, let's see if it provides something useful.
Google AI did a great job of tracking Hurricane Melissa which is currently wacking Jamaica after following a pretty erratic track. Those extra days warning make all the difference when you are on the ground. Unfortunately, it's a monster.
Prediction based on patterns in huge historical datasets is a great use for AI, and weather forecasting is a great example.
Some of the other potential uses are much less benign. Health insurance claim denials, expected voting behavior, etc. It depends who is paying for it and for whose benefit the modeling is done.
But but but ... one time, the weather forecast said it was going to rain at my house and it didn't! Thus, everything you say is meaningless!
</sarcasm>
Thanks, as always, for focusing on what really matters, Hannah.
Weather forecasting is also increasingly important to managing electricity grids and anticipating near term generation (and storage) requirements. As more renewable energy is added it will become even more significant.
Sounds promising, but the irony’s wild, training AI to predict a chaotic climate made worse by *checks notes* AI training
Paradoxes of irrationality - in that it's clear AI power demand will ramp climate weather impact.
How so? The article says the AI reduced the amount of computing time and resources to make better forecasts, meaning it uses less energy than before.
Is there a farming forecast in the same way as the shipping forecast happens every day?
"......but they can make a huge difference to farmers (which is the majority in low-income countries) as they guide them on when and what to plant. "
Well......WHAT to plant will surely have been decided long ago ! It will be either corn, wheat, rice, barley, sorghum, oat , rye , potatoes , sugar cane, potatoes, soybeans, oil-palm fruit, sugar beet or cassava and bananas ..........or quinoa or coffee or cacao perhaps .............whatever they traditionally grow and whatever "SEED" or "propagating material" they have !
And WHEN.......will depend on the rainfall ! No rain = no crop . Too much rain = delayed crop.
So ....sorry to be obtuse........but I don't see the "huge difference" in the what and the when .
.
"A good forecast could be the difference between a great harvest and none at all." Really ?
What do you envisage ? Harvesting your grapes , grain or pumpkins BEFORE they are ripe is futile.
Locking the "chickens" into the fowl-house so you can still get eggs ?...Pick a few strawberries ?
Harvesting a small amount of produce before a storm hits is probably going to make very little difference either ! Perhaps save you a trip to the grocery store for a few days ?
The forecast will NOT really affect the harvest other than for INSURANCE purposes .
IT HELPS TO VALIDATE THE FARMER'S CLAIM !
In Australia, farmers can insure their crops against events like hail, fire, and flood, as well as risks from pest infestations and diseases. This can include broad coverage through Multi-Peril Crop Insurance (MPCI), which protects against a range of weather-related perils like drought, excessive rainfall, frost, and pests, herbicide-drift from neighbouring farms etc ...... Other options may cover specific risks or harvested crops.
Yes.....a decent weather forecast CAN assist with your planning BUT it makes no difference if the circumstances change ! e.g. the rain falls elsewhere , your soil-type needs MORE rain than what you receive this time , you get the lightning strikes [ and the fires] but not the rain to put them out etc. Farming is , and always has been , a risky business and it is entirely unpredictable.....AI or not !
I think that Ken Fabian is on the right track !
It will always be more relevant to INFRASTRUCTURE than it is to AGRICULTURE.
Rail and roads and bridges may wash away and airstrips may be closed....isolation due to flooding etc. Power-lines and communication networks 'knocked-out' . Animals may run out of fodder etc.
but.....whatever......planning , no matter how good it is in theory , always goes hay-wire when the problem occurs !
"..but they can make a huge difference to farmers (which is the majority in low-income countries)"
Hannah....there ARE no low income countries anymore ! Yes....low priority for agriculture perhaps !
But you have to remember that India , Pakistan , China , Russia and the like , have HUGE standing military forces with the latest weaponry , including atomic weapons , have ICBM's .......and we are going to have a couple of submarines , outdated aircraft and some new frigates in 10 years time !
Sorry , but I can't exactly raise much sympathy for "the low income countries" farmers !
Perhaps "THEY" will still BUY our iron-ore and wheat and wool to help pay for the "subs" ??????
Except in the United States, of course, where funding has been significant cut and jobs lost in weather data and analysis.
I'll wait and see. Not the first time a big academic project says their seasonal forecasting could help farmers. Not much to show for all the money thus far. Throwing in the flavour of the year (AI) was a predictable move of course, let's see if it provides something useful.
The article just described how it was useful to the farmers in India.
This is lovely ❤️
Brilliant! Saving this