Checking in from NZ, which I saw at the top of the first graph! Has been a big upswing in the purchase of EV’s in the past few years, due partially to a “Clean Car Discount”, which was around NZ$8k off a new EV, and around NZ$3k off a used EV, which is funded by a “tax” on polluting vehicles, like Utes (trucks), which are insanely popular in NZ.
I very much doubt the data is correct for NZ. In 2021, many organisations installing chargers were almost secretive about them. We had 6 installed in our suburb with no publicity and another 6 installed at the local marina with no publicity yet!
I have no idea how you could get an accurate count in 2023.
Thank you for writing this Hannah, excellent article. Please can I ask where Tesla stands in definitions of public chargers and EVs sold, Teslas operate ( for the most part) in their own micro climate for fast charging? I know there is crossover but Tesla owners seem to have a much different experience & I wondered if there’s enough data to see that in the numbers? (Someone is going to mention reliability...) Thank you again for your analysis.
Slow, at-home charging is cheaper and damages your vehicle less. That's fine for people who own their own homes, but not for renters. Renters will pay more for charging, and will have to replace vehicles more often, and renters' vehicles will be in worse condition at the same total mileage than homeowners' vehicles. So this is another way in which the EV transition is increasing inequality.
EV transition will improve equality over time. A couple of thoughts on the article, and this issue.
Data in this article is 2021, while 2022-2025 are projected to be the big expansion years for fast chargers. I hope we see updates as data becomes available. Tesla has started opening up their massive NACS network to CCS, which will be a benefit to many.
Charging for Multi Unit Residential Buildings ( MURBs) is getting addressed with legislation at various levels of government. In some areas of Canada new apartment building or condo cannot be built without chargers. Federally condo board legislation has been improved to only require a 50% board vote to get approval on charger installations at existing buildings. In Toronto L2 street chargers are being rolled out with a focus on low income areas. Electricity costs are much lower than gasoline. Maintenance on EV’s is almost nonexistent. EVs have generally rolled out at the high end, but EVs cost less to make than gas vehicles, so prices will come down as supply scales up. Governments at multiple levels offer income tested rebates on EV’s that when combined with low fuel costs can make a substantial difference in affordability. In Oregon a premium vehicle like a Tesla model three can be had for $25,000 after rebates. A Chevy Bolt, even less.
Tesla’s next vehicle is expected by some to be a very high volume replacement for the Toyota Corolla.
But the big breakthrough will be Transportation as a Service (TAAS). It is predicted that within 5 years these smart digital EVs will be capable of autonomous driving. This eliminates a need to own a vehicle, when for about the price of a bus ticket, you can go directly where you want to go,when you want to go.
Charging does not damage the vehicle. Rather the battery has a certain number of full charging cycles (typically 1500 about 14-20 years) that it is good for before it reaches 70% capacity. Newer battery chemistry see only a small impact from fast DC charging.
22 KWh should not be considered fast charging. While it can be DC, it is certainly not fast. Government legislation in North America generally defines fast charging as 150KWh as the minimum to get fast charger incentives. Where I live most DCFC are 250KWh with 300s starting to roll out. This makes most charging stops away from home 20-30 minutes.
Rebates are, of course, a primary mechanism for increasing inequality. The government is handing money to people who are already well off, either in the form of savings or in the form of a good credit score and the income to make repayments.
Autonomous vehicles and self-driving taxis have been "coming next year" since 2012. The cost of a ride will not be nearly as low as some people claim, nor will convenience be as great.
Hannah points out in her article that fast charging damages batteries. This is due to the development of heat from resistive losses in the "wires" inside the battery. Battery chemistry has only a small effect. Many smart engineers are working on battery geometry, but the problem exists.
There are no wires inside a cylindrical EV battery, but there are certainly conductors. This is why Tesla developed the 4680 tabless battery, to drop internal resistance, and the resulting heat and efficiency losses. LFP batteries can be charged faster, and to higher levels without concern.
I agree that autonomous vehicles are taking longer to come than some predicted, and that some companies (VW & Ford) have given up for now. However I drive a Tesla with the latest version of the beta test software, and it has improved at a dramatic rate this year. Still work in progress, but does handle many drives without intervention. I certainly expect L3 next year, an L4 autonomy by 2025. Time will tell.
I don't see how that follows. In the UK (& presumably elsewhere too) many home-owners -- like me -- live in flats. So if I owned an EV (I don't own a car at all), I'd have to use a public charger: whether fast or slow.
And conversely, many renters outside city centres live in houses, with the ability to charge EVs at home: except they're less likely to own an EV in the first place, or they probably wouldn't be renting.
(Renters are more likely to be using a petrol or diesel car -- much cheaper to buy than an EV -- or public transport, if not walking or cycling.)
Virtually all renters are also responsible for their own utility bills, just like home-owners.
So your point really applies only to people whose income, in a given high-density or high property price location, forces them to rent a flat rather than buy or rent a house, but who despite this can afford to buy an EV, and who have access only to fast charging points -- which they probably appreciate a lot more than slow ones. Even if it reduces the battery life of their EV.
Renters are not buying many EVs now, but they are starting to buy used EVs, and they will have to buy EVs in future, as used internal-combustion-engine vehicles become scarce, and fuel more expensive (and probably scarce also).
Even for renters with with off-street parking, getting the building owner's permission to install an 8 kW charger can be a protracted, chancy process, and it's the owner who gets the benefit in the long run.
My hope is that battery swapping takes off, so that just like going to a petrol station now, you can take any model of car to any battery-swapping station and get a charged battery. In this business model a car's price does not include the battery's cost, rather that cost is recovered gradually over the battery's lifetime in swap fees. Early versions of this are being tried in some cities in China now.
Battery swapping in an EV has been tried a few times and always failed. I believe Tesla did it first, and they had the swap down to 90 seconds, but it proved just not to make sense. The EV battery is the most expensive component in the vehicle and also the part that benefits from proper care. Why would you want your new cared for battery to be taken from you and you get somebody’s old abused battery? How would you do battery warranties? Vin fast tried to address this by renting you the battery and letting you only buy the vehicle, this, too, is flopped and it’s being withdrawn in North America.
Home charging where available, only takes 10 seconds of your time, just to plug-in at night and unplug in the morning.
Fast charging speeds are ramping quickly, particularly with larger batteries and higher voltage architectures, that can do 360 kWh charge rates. This gives you 10 minutes charging, but 25 minute battery swaps, with NIO.
Interesting point. This will be more adverse in countries with low homeownership which I think are usually more advanced economies with more developed rental markets. Will see if some policy will take into account this new layer of inequality.
In NYC, many apartment buildings have parking garages in the basement. The co-op I grew up in did. There's no reason they can't add a charging system. When I lived there with my parents in the 1960s, they charged extra for each window air conditioner, so I imagine they could put in meters or a flat fee for each car. The co-op, a whole city block, used to buy power on a peak 30 minute basis which was cheaper than simple metering. I don't know if the utilities still offer that these days, but it would be a good deal given cars would mainly charge overnight.
So, does a lower ratio or a higher ratio indicate a stronger and more supportive EV charging infrastructure. For example, South Korea is on the bottom, so does that mean that their infrastructure is weaker than New Zealand’s which is at the top? Or, is it the other way around, where South Korea has more EV chargers since it has less cars per charger? I’m having trouble understanding!
How do they count chargers at hotels and motels? I've noticed that upmarket hotels tend to have chargers for guests along with valet parking. Are they considered public or private?
The first public charging station I saw was in the late 1980s or early 1990s. It was in the parking structure at the Alewife station of the extended Red Line in the Boston Area. There were several close in spots with chargers reserved for Solectria cars manufactured in Arlington, MA right near the station. I only saw a few cars using them.
Hannah, I wish your post acknowledged that while transitioning to evs may be part of the answer, there is a lot of value in rethinking and reversing the inefficient car-centric model of transportation...
Checking in from NZ, which I saw at the top of the first graph! Has been a big upswing in the purchase of EV’s in the past few years, due partially to a “Clean Car Discount”, which was around NZ$8k off a new EV, and around NZ$3k off a used EV, which is funded by a “tax” on polluting vehicles, like Utes (trucks), which are insanely popular in NZ.
I very much doubt the data is correct for NZ. In 2021, many organisations installing chargers were almost secretive about them. We had 6 installed in our suburb with no publicity and another 6 installed at the local marina with no publicity yet!
I have no idea how you could get an accurate count in 2023.
Thank you for writing this Hannah, excellent article. Please can I ask where Tesla stands in definitions of public chargers and EVs sold, Teslas operate ( for the most part) in their own micro climate for fast charging? I know there is crossover but Tesla owners seem to have a much different experience & I wondered if there’s enough data to see that in the numbers? (Someone is going to mention reliability...) Thank you again for your analysis.
Slow, at-home charging is cheaper and damages your vehicle less. That's fine for people who own their own homes, but not for renters. Renters will pay more for charging, and will have to replace vehicles more often, and renters' vehicles will be in worse condition at the same total mileage than homeowners' vehicles. So this is another way in which the EV transition is increasing inequality.
EV transition will improve equality over time. A couple of thoughts on the article, and this issue.
Data in this article is 2021, while 2022-2025 are projected to be the big expansion years for fast chargers. I hope we see updates as data becomes available. Tesla has started opening up their massive NACS network to CCS, which will be a benefit to many.
Charging for Multi Unit Residential Buildings ( MURBs) is getting addressed with legislation at various levels of government. In some areas of Canada new apartment building or condo cannot be built without chargers. Federally condo board legislation has been improved to only require a 50% board vote to get approval on charger installations at existing buildings. In Toronto L2 street chargers are being rolled out with a focus on low income areas. Electricity costs are much lower than gasoline. Maintenance on EV’s is almost nonexistent. EVs have generally rolled out at the high end, but EVs cost less to make than gas vehicles, so prices will come down as supply scales up. Governments at multiple levels offer income tested rebates on EV’s that when combined with low fuel costs can make a substantial difference in affordability. In Oregon a premium vehicle like a Tesla model three can be had for $25,000 after rebates. A Chevy Bolt, even less.
Tesla’s next vehicle is expected by some to be a very high volume replacement for the Toyota Corolla.
But the big breakthrough will be Transportation as a Service (TAAS). It is predicted that within 5 years these smart digital EVs will be capable of autonomous driving. This eliminates a need to own a vehicle, when for about the price of a bus ticket, you can go directly where you want to go,when you want to go.
Charging does not damage the vehicle. Rather the battery has a certain number of full charging cycles (typically 1500 about 14-20 years) that it is good for before it reaches 70% capacity. Newer battery chemistry see only a small impact from fast DC charging.
22 KWh should not be considered fast charging. While it can be DC, it is certainly not fast. Government legislation in North America generally defines fast charging as 150KWh as the minimum to get fast charger incentives. Where I live most DCFC are 250KWh with 300s starting to roll out. This makes most charging stops away from home 20-30 minutes.
Rebates are, of course, a primary mechanism for increasing inequality. The government is handing money to people who are already well off, either in the form of savings or in the form of a good credit score and the income to make repayments.
Autonomous vehicles and self-driving taxis have been "coming next year" since 2012. The cost of a ride will not be nearly as low as some people claim, nor will convenience be as great.
Hannah points out in her article that fast charging damages batteries. This is due to the development of heat from resistive losses in the "wires" inside the battery. Battery chemistry has only a small effect. Many smart engineers are working on battery geometry, but the problem exists.
There are no wires inside a cylindrical EV battery, but there are certainly conductors. This is why Tesla developed the 4680 tabless battery, to drop internal resistance, and the resulting heat and efficiency losses. LFP batteries can be charged faster, and to higher levels without concern.
I agree that autonomous vehicles are taking longer to come than some predicted, and that some companies (VW & Ford) have given up for now. However I drive a Tesla with the latest version of the beta test software, and it has improved at a dramatic rate this year. Still work in progress, but does handle many drives without intervention. I certainly expect L3 next year, an L4 autonomy by 2025. Time will tell.
I don't see how that follows. In the UK (& presumably elsewhere too) many home-owners -- like me -- live in flats. So if I owned an EV (I don't own a car at all), I'd have to use a public charger: whether fast or slow.
And conversely, many renters outside city centres live in houses, with the ability to charge EVs at home: except they're less likely to own an EV in the first place, or they probably wouldn't be renting.
(Renters are more likely to be using a petrol or diesel car -- much cheaper to buy than an EV -- or public transport, if not walking or cycling.)
Virtually all renters are also responsible for their own utility bills, just like home-owners.
So your point really applies only to people whose income, in a given high-density or high property price location, forces them to rent a flat rather than buy or rent a house, but who despite this can afford to buy an EV, and who have access only to fast charging points -- which they probably appreciate a lot more than slow ones. Even if it reduces the battery life of their EV.
Renters are not buying many EVs now, but they are starting to buy used EVs, and they will have to buy EVs in future, as used internal-combustion-engine vehicles become scarce, and fuel more expensive (and probably scarce also).
Even for renters with with off-street parking, getting the building owner's permission to install an 8 kW charger can be a protracted, chancy process, and it's the owner who gets the benefit in the long run.
My hope is that battery swapping takes off, so that just like going to a petrol station now, you can take any model of car to any battery-swapping station and get a charged battery. In this business model a car's price does not include the battery's cost, rather that cost is recovered gradually over the battery's lifetime in swap fees. Early versions of this are being tried in some cities in China now.
Battery swapping in an EV has been tried a few times and always failed. I believe Tesla did it first, and they had the swap down to 90 seconds, but it proved just not to make sense. The EV battery is the most expensive component in the vehicle and also the part that benefits from proper care. Why would you want your new cared for battery to be taken from you and you get somebody’s old abused battery? How would you do battery warranties? Vin fast tried to address this by renting you the battery and letting you only buy the vehicle, this, too, is flopped and it’s being withdrawn in North America.
Home charging where available, only takes 10 seconds of your time, just to plug-in at night and unplug in the morning.
Fast charging speeds are ramping quickly, particularly with larger batteries and higher voltage architectures, that can do 360 kWh charge rates. This gives you 10 minutes charging, but 25 minute battery swaps, with NIO.
Interesting point. This will be more adverse in countries with low homeownership which I think are usually more advanced economies with more developed rental markets. Will see if some policy will take into account this new layer of inequality.
In NYC, many apartment buildings have parking garages in the basement. The co-op I grew up in did. There's no reason they can't add a charging system. When I lived there with my parents in the 1960s, they charged extra for each window air conditioner, so I imagine they could put in meters or a flat fee for each car. The co-op, a whole city block, used to buy power on a peak 30 minute basis which was cheaper than simple metering. I don't know if the utilities still offer that these days, but it would be a good deal given cars would mainly charge overnight.
So, does a lower ratio or a higher ratio indicate a stronger and more supportive EV charging infrastructure. For example, South Korea is on the bottom, so does that mean that their infrastructure is weaker than New Zealand’s which is at the top? Or, is it the other way around, where South Korea has more EV chargers since it has less cars per charger? I’m having trouble understanding!
How do they count chargers at hotels and motels? I've noticed that upmarket hotels tend to have chargers for guests along with valet parking. Are they considered public or private?
The first public charging station I saw was in the late 1980s or early 1990s. It was in the parking structure at the Alewife station of the extended Red Line in the Boston Area. There were several close in spots with chargers reserved for Solectria cars manufactured in Arlington, MA right near the station. I only saw a few cars using them.
Hannah, I wish your post acknowledged that while transitioning to evs may be part of the answer, there is a lot of value in rethinking and reversing the inefficient car-centric model of transportation...
Awesome article!
Brilliant as ever!