Dr. Gill Pratt, chief scientist at Toyota, has been talking about the medium term lithium scarcity for a couple years. He claims it is part of the reason they have been slow to go all in on EVs, https://insideevs.com/news/650150/toyota-says-ev-extremists-are-wrong/ . I could be biased, I own a Toyota plug-in hybrid. To his point, plug-in hybrids use about 1/6 of the lithium and have similar lifecycle emissions to EVs, https://www.carboncounter.com/#!/explore . Maybe Toyota knows what they're doing after all.
I continue to contend that instead of dictating technology, e.g., percentage of EVs, government policy should be setting guidelines for lifecycle emissions and let manufacturers and innovation determine the right mix of technologies.
The problem with Life cycle assessment as a target metric is LCA is as much an art as a science, that is very sensitive to underlying assumptions. Much better as a comparative tool than an absolute target metric.
I am not sure that this article really gets to the heart of the matter regarding Green energy and raw materials.
I think the biggest concern in this area is a sudden price spike of critical raw materials due to demand getting close to supply. This happens frequently with oil and gas. Given the long time it takes to open up new mines, this could make Green energy far more expensive for a decade. I have no doubt supply will eventually adjust, but that is a long time.
Given that there are only 26 years to get to Net Zero in 2050, this one factor could derail the whole Green energy agenda.
I think the issue of market supply/demand shocks is understated. One could see a possibility where investors have gone in too hard on renewables, causing an excess of demand, rocketing (mineral) supply prices followed by a bust and investors backing off renewables, reducing the very demand needed to open up new mines. Overall causing a stagnation (don't know if there's an econ word for this). Trusting markets will remain in equilibrium after all the supply shocks of the past few years seems worryingly optimistic.
I am curious if anyone has seen any at-scale models implemented for mineral recycling - it seems like everyone talks about it being a great concept we want to adopt in theory. Folks I've spoken with in these fields WANT to adopt and implement these circular models as it would reduce the need for such intensive mineral extraction operations and potentially cut raw material costs but I don't know what examples to point to.
Is this just that new a concept for manufacturers that we’re still waiting for the first at-scale implementation or are there good examples to point to?
Dr. Gill Pratt, chief scientist at Toyota, has been talking about the medium term lithium scarcity for a couple years. He claims it is part of the reason they have been slow to go all in on EVs, https://insideevs.com/news/650150/toyota-says-ev-extremists-are-wrong/ . I could be biased, I own a Toyota plug-in hybrid. To his point, plug-in hybrids use about 1/6 of the lithium and have similar lifecycle emissions to EVs, https://www.carboncounter.com/#!/explore . Maybe Toyota knows what they're doing after all.
I continue to contend that instead of dictating technology, e.g., percentage of EVs, government policy should be setting guidelines for lifecycle emissions and let manufacturers and innovation determine the right mix of technologies.
The problem with Life cycle assessment as a target metric is LCA is as much an art as a science, that is very sensitive to underlying assumptions. Much better as a comparative tool than an absolute target metric.
I have studied it enough to believe there is enough science behind it to merit consideration as a policy tool, e.g. https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/articles/fotw-1303-august-14-2023-cradle-grave-electric-vehicles-have-fewer and https://www.hydrogen.energy.gov/docs/hydrogenprogramlibraries/pdfs/21003-life-cycle-ghg-emissions-small-suvs.pdf . These tools will continue to get better and can be open-sourced for use by manufacturers to know where they stand.
I am not sure that this article really gets to the heart of the matter regarding Green energy and raw materials.
I think the biggest concern in this area is a sudden price spike of critical raw materials due to demand getting close to supply. This happens frequently with oil and gas. Given the long time it takes to open up new mines, this could make Green energy far more expensive for a decade. I have no doubt supply will eventually adjust, but that is a long time.
Given that there are only 26 years to get to Net Zero in 2050, this one factor could derail the whole Green energy agenda.
I think the issue of market supply/demand shocks is understated. One could see a possibility where investors have gone in too hard on renewables, causing an excess of demand, rocketing (mineral) supply prices followed by a bust and investors backing off renewables, reducing the very demand needed to open up new mines. Overall causing a stagnation (don't know if there's an econ word for this). Trusting markets will remain in equilibrium after all the supply shocks of the past few years seems worryingly optimistic.
I am curious if anyone has seen any at-scale models implemented for mineral recycling - it seems like everyone talks about it being a great concept we want to adopt in theory. Folks I've spoken with in these fields WANT to adopt and implement these circular models as it would reduce the need for such intensive mineral extraction operations and potentially cut raw material costs but I don't know what examples to point to.
Is this just that new a concept for manufacturers that we’re still waiting for the first at-scale implementation or are there good examples to point to?
Redwood in their first year recycled 500,000 lbs of material from 1,268 EV battery packs.
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2023/03/heres-what-redwood-learned-in-its-first-year-of-ev-battery-recycling/
And this is a great video, showing battery recycling at scale https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2xrarUWVRQ by https://li-cycle.com/
Good and useful analysis
This post and the previous one are the best articles summarising the challenge of securing critical raw materials I have read this year