Dr. Gill Pratt, chief scientist at Toyota, has been talking about the medium term lithium scarcity for a couple years. He claims it is part of the reason they have been slow to go all in on EVs, https://insideevs.com/news/650150/toyota-says-ev-extremists-are-wrong/ . I could be biased, I own a Toyota plug-in hybrid. To his point, plug-in hybrids use about 1/6 of the lithium and have similar lifecycle emissions to EVs, https://www.carboncounter.com/#!/explore . Maybe Toyota knows what they're doing after all.
I continue to contend that instead of dictating technology, e.g., percentage of EVs, government policy should be setting guidelines for lifecycle emissions and let manufacturers and innovation determine the right mix of technologies.
I am not sure that this article really gets to the heart of the matter regarding Green energy and raw materials.
I think the biggest concern in this area is a sudden price spike of critical raw materials due to demand getting close to supply. This happens frequently with oil and gas. Given the long time it takes to open up new mines, this could make Green energy far more expensive for a decade. I have no doubt supply will eventually adjust, but that is a long time.
Given that there are only 26 years to get to Net Zero in 2050, this one factor could derail the whole Green energy agenda.
If mineral shortages are going to be a production-or market-limiting aspect of the energy transition, seems to me companies and other interests in it are motivated to find alternatives to the minerals and processes which use them. Couldn't there be alternatives to Lithium and Copper? Surely in case of latter there's Silver? Lithium? Other ways of storing electrical energy? Bet there is some creative thinking out there.
I am curious if anyone has seen any at-scale models implemented for mineral recycling - it seems like everyone talks about it being a great concept we want to adopt in theory. Folks I've spoken with in these fields WANT to adopt and implement these circular models as it would reduce the need for such intensive mineral extraction operations and potentially cut raw material costs but I don't know what examples to point to.
Is this just that new a concept for manufacturers that we’re still waiting for the first at-scale implementation or are there good examples to point to?
Dr. Gill Pratt, chief scientist at Toyota, has been talking about the medium term lithium scarcity for a couple years. He claims it is part of the reason they have been slow to go all in on EVs, https://insideevs.com/news/650150/toyota-says-ev-extremists-are-wrong/ . I could be biased, I own a Toyota plug-in hybrid. To his point, plug-in hybrids use about 1/6 of the lithium and have similar lifecycle emissions to EVs, https://www.carboncounter.com/#!/explore . Maybe Toyota knows what they're doing after all.
I continue to contend that instead of dictating technology, e.g., percentage of EVs, government policy should be setting guidelines for lifecycle emissions and let manufacturers and innovation determine the right mix of technologies.
I am not sure that this article really gets to the heart of the matter regarding Green energy and raw materials.
I think the biggest concern in this area is a sudden price spike of critical raw materials due to demand getting close to supply. This happens frequently with oil and gas. Given the long time it takes to open up new mines, this could make Green energy far more expensive for a decade. I have no doubt supply will eventually adjust, but that is a long time.
Given that there are only 26 years to get to Net Zero in 2050, this one factor could derail the whole Green energy agenda.
If mineral shortages are going to be a production-or market-limiting aspect of the energy transition, seems to me companies and other interests in it are motivated to find alternatives to the minerals and processes which use them. Couldn't there be alternatives to Lithium and Copper? Surely in case of latter there's Silver? Lithium? Other ways of storing electrical energy? Bet there is some creative thinking out there.
I am curious if anyone has seen any at-scale models implemented for mineral recycling - it seems like everyone talks about it being a great concept we want to adopt in theory. Folks I've spoken with in these fields WANT to adopt and implement these circular models as it would reduce the need for such intensive mineral extraction operations and potentially cut raw material costs but I don't know what examples to point to.
Is this just that new a concept for manufacturers that we’re still waiting for the first at-scale implementation or are there good examples to point to?
Good and useful analysis
This post and the previous one are the best articles summarising the challenge of securing critical raw materials I have read this year